The OBR’s March Economic and fiscal outlook projected a 2.4% rise in the RPI in the year to Q4 2021. The Bank of England’s August forecast of CPI inflation of 4.0% in Q4 would then read across to RPI inflation of 5.6%. This would imply a decline in the gap from the current 1.8 pp to 1.6 pp. Recent strength may not yet have fed through fully to the RPI housing depreciation component – the annual rise in the latter of 9.9% in July compares with a 13.2% increase in the ONS house price index in the year to June.Īssume, as a reasonable base case, that that the annual increase in the housing depreciation component moderates to 8.0% in Q4 2021 while other influences on the RPI / CPI inflation gap are stable. The phase-out of the stamp duty holiday is being reflected in a slowdown in housing market activity but estate agents expect a shortage of supply to support prices, according to the RICS survey. So weighting effects are likely to have had a larger negative impact on CPI than RPI inflation. 2021 weights, therefore, reflect spending in the year to June 2020 – the impact of the pandemic was smaller over this period than in calendar 2020. The RPI has been less affected because the normal procedure was followed of basing weights on expenditure shares in the 12 months to June of the previous year. An alternative calculation carrying over 2020 weights (based on 2018 expenditure data) to 2021 produces an annual inflation number for July of 2.5% rather than 2.0% – chart 4. As previously explained, this has lowered the weight of categories hit hardest by the pandemic but now experiencing a rebound in demand and prices. The RPI / CPI and RPIX / CPI inflation gaps, however, have widened by more than implied by house prices alone – chart 3.Ī likely additional influence has been the ONS decision to depart from its normal procedure and base 2021 CPI weights on 2020 rather than 2019 expenditure data. the sensitivity of the RPI to house prices has increased by more than 50% since then. Note that the housing depreciation weight has risen from 5.8% in 2014, i.e. The CPI omits owner-occupier housing costs. This component has a 9.0% weight and rose by 9.9% in the year to July, contributing 0.9 pp to RPI inflation of 3.8%. House prices enter the RPI via the housing depreciation component*, which is linked to ONS house price data with a short lag – chart 2. The widening gaps mainly reflect surging house prices, driven partly by Chancellor Sunak’s stamp duty holiday. The RPIX / CPI inflation gap of 1.9 pp is the biggest on record since the inception of CPI inflation data in 1989 – see chart 1. The RPI / CPI inflation gap, therefore, widened to 1.8 pp, its largest since June 2010. RPIX inflation – excluding mortgage interest – was stable at 3.9%. RPI inflation could top 5.5% in Q4 2021, boosting interest payments on index-linked gilts by a whopping £15 billion relative to the OBR’s Budget forecast.ĬPI inflation fell from 2.5% in June to 2.0% in July but RPI Inflation eased by only 0.1 pp to 3.8%. A bigger story was the further widening of the RPI / CPI inflation gap to an 11-year high. Thanks for the recent upgrades, I now have my own logo displayed on the ccgx.The fall in UK CPI inflation in July reported this week will be of limited comfort to policy-makers – a decline had been expected because of a large base effect and will be more than reversed in August. Make the ccgx work with the alba combi NMEA adapater. On the "mobile" screen of the ccgx the shore power information (watts/volts/amps) is not displayed because I have MPPTs attached and that replaces the shore power information.Ĭould shore power information be displayed in the tank level area when tank levels are not being used? If the ccgx alarm is enabled then that should also sound. It could simply be a pop-up window that says either "Shore Power Connected" or "Shore Power Disconnected" with an acknowledge button. I would like to have an option for a "Shore Power Alert" that will go off when shore power is connected or disconnected. In one case the battery got down to 20% before I knew anything was wrong, I have the BMV set to alarm at that level. ![]() That's great, but I would like to know when that happens so I can shut down non essentially loads in the camper to help preserve battery power. My Victron system automatically switched over to the inverter and I never even knew that shore power was down. I had three occasions where I was at a campground with shore power connected and the campground power went down. ![]() Based on that experience I have a feature request: I just ended a six week road trip in my camper and my Victron system performed great.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |